HOW DO GLOBAL CONFLICTS SHAPE INDIA’S ECONOMY, SOCIETY, AND SECURITY, AND WHAT STRATEGIES BUILD RESILIENCE, 2018–2025?
Strategic Responses for Economic and Digital Resilience
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11113/ijibs.v21.192Keywords:
Geopolitical conflicts, India, Economic spillovers, Misinformation, Security modernization, strategic hedging, resilience strategies, cascading hybrid fragmentationAbstract
The period 2018–2025 was marked by five major geopolitical conflicts that generated cascading hybrid fragmentation across global systems. This study investigates the multi-domain spillovers of the Russia-Ukraine War, US-China Trade Disputes, Israel-Hamas Conflict, 2025 India-Pakistan Crisis, and Taiwan Strait Tensions on India’s economic stability, political positioning, social cohesion, security modernisation, and digital ecosystems. Adopting a
mixed-methods approach, the research integrates extensive quantitative indicators, 18 anonymized expert interviews, and sentiment analysis of 10,000 X posts collected between April and June 2025. Vector autoregression, difference-in-differences, and SIRS-PD models were applied and rigorously validated through back-testing and sensitivity analysis, achieving 80–90 percent accuracy. Findings reveal modest yet persistent economic pressures, heightened social polarisation driven by misinformation, and elevated cyber vulnerabilities. These challenges were partially offset by India’s robust economic growth and proactive strategic hedging. The study develops a comprehensive Indian-centric framework for understanding multi-domain spillovers and offers practical recommendations for building long-term resilience amid intensifying global fragmentation.
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